Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legal UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Julián Álvarez | 100% |
| Lionel Messi | 100% |
| João Neves | 100% |
| Jude Bellingham | 100% |
| Luis Díaz | 100% |
| Lautaro Martínez | 100% |
| Virgil van Dijk | 100% |
| Jamal Musiala | 100% |
| Nuno Mendes | 100% |
| Kevin De Bruyne | 100% |
| Désiré Doué | 100% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 100% |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 100% |
| Enzo Fernández | 100% |
| Mohamed Salah | 100% |
| Cody Gakpo | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr | 100% |
| Rafael Leão | 100% |
| Alexis Mac Allister | 100% |
| Gabriel Martinelli | 100% |
| Viktor Gyökeres | 100% |
| Arda Güler | 100% |
| Fabián Ruiz | 100% |
| Casemiro | 100% |
| Mikel Merino | 100% |
| Raúl Jiménez | 100% |
| Gonçalo Ramos | 100% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | 100% |
| Lisandro Martínez | 100% |
| Bradley Barcola | 100% |
| Alexander Isak | 100% |
| Dan Ndoye | 100% |
| Granit Xhaka | 100% |
| Breel Embolo | 100% |
| Matheus Cunha | 100% |
| Wilson Isidor | 100% |
| Folarin Balogun | 100% |
| Julio Enciso | 100% |
| Kai Havertz | 100% |
| Leroy Sané | 100% |
| Amad Diallo | 100% |
| Nicolas Pépé | 100% |
| Keito Nakamura | 100% |
| Anthony Elanga | 100% |
| Charles De Ketelaere | 100% |
| Romelu Lukaku | 100% |
| Leandro Trossard | 100% |
| Iliman Ndiaye | 100% |
| Marcel Sabitzer | 100% |
| Yoane Wissa | 100% |
| Marcus Rashford | 100% |
| Ivan Perišić | 100% |
| Neymar Jr. | 100% |
| Dário Leite | 48% |
| Bukayo Saka | 21% |
| Dani Olmo | 21% |
| Eberechi Eze | 18% |
| Nico Williams | 15% |
| Declan Rice | 14% |
| Michael Olise | 14% |
| Ferran Torres | 13% |
| Rodri | 10% |
| Pedri | 10% |
| Rayan Cherki | 9% |
| Reece James | 7% |
| Marcus Thuram | 7% |
| Marc Cucurella | 6% |
| Marc Guéhi | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | 4% |
| Gavi | 4% |
| Pau Cubarsí | 3% |
| N'Golo Kanté | 2% |
| Ibrahima Konaté | 2% |
| Jules Koundé | 2% |
| Martin Zubimendi | 1% |
| Federico Valverde | 0% |
| Bruno Fernandes | 0% |
| Raphinha | 0% |
| Moisés Caicedo | 0% |
| Gabriel Magalhães | 0% |
| Florian Wirtz | 0% |
| Antoine Semenyo | 0% |
| Joshua Kimmich | 0% |
| Alphonso Davies | 0% |
| Bernardo Silva | 0% |
| Cole Palmer | 0% |
| Luka Modrić | 0% |
| Denzel Dumfries | 0% |
| Jérémy Doku | 0% |
| Antonio Rüdiger | 0% |
| Tijjani Reijnders | 0% |
| Rúben Dias | 0% |
| Bruno Guimarães | 0% |
| Frenkie de Jong | 0% |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0% |
| Vitinha | 0% |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 0% |
| Robert Lewandowski | 0% |
| David Raya | 0% |
| Sadio Mané | 0% |
| Martin Ødegaard | 0% |
| William Pacho | 0% |
| Scott McTominay | 0% |
| Ryan Gravenberch | 0% |
| Fermín López | 0% |
| Joško Gvardiol | 0% |
| Marquinhos | 0% |
| William Saliba | 0% |
| João Pedro | 0% |
| Weston McKennie | 0% |
| João Cancelo | 0% |
| Christian Pulisic | 0% |
| Son Heung-min | 0% |
| Jeremie Frimpong | 0% |
| Kenan Yıldız | 0% |
| Kaoru Mitoma | 0% |
| Phil Foden | 0% |
| Kim Min-jae | 0% |
| Pervis Estupiñán | 0% |
| Noah Okafor | 0% |
| Abdulaziz Hatem | 0% |
| Ahmed Fathi | 0% |
| Igor Thiago | 0% |
| Endrick | 0% |
| Brahim Díaz | 0% |
| Josué Casimir | 0% |
| Che Adams | 0% |
| Ricardo Pepi | 0% |
| Miguel Almirón | 0% |
| Hakan Çalhanoğlu | 0% |
| Nick Woltemade | 0% |
| Lennart Kahl | 0% |
| Tahith Chong | 0% |
| Yann Bisseck | 0% |
| Ibrahim Sangaré | 0% |
| Teun Koopmeiners | 0% |
| Memphis Depay | 0% |
| Donyell Malen | 0% |
| Takefusa Kubo | 0% |
| Khalil Ayari | 0% |
| Omar Marmoush | 0% |
| Haissem Hassan | 0% |
| Chris Wood | 0% |
| Alexander Sørloth | 0% |
| Oscar Bobb | 0% |
| Emiliano Buendía | 0% |
| Carney Chukwuemeka | 0% |
| Pedro Neto | 0% |
| Luis Suárez | 0% |
| James Rodríguez | 0% |
| Mateo Kovačić | 0% |
| Iñaki Williams | 0% |
| Ismael Díaz | 0% |
| Luis Javier Suárez | 0% |
| Darwin Nunez | 0% |
Market context
The World Cup: Player to score prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed player scores a goal during any match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. A goal scored during regular t…
Methodology
This overview of World Cup: Player to score reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Legal UK?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Legal UK stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Legal UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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