US Cremonese vs. Como 1907

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 24 May 2026, US Cremonese will host Como 1907 in a Serie A fixture. The 16% implied probability reflects market assessment of a Cremonese victory in what constitutes a mid-table encounter between two clubs competing in Italy's top division. Settlement occurs at 13:00 UTC on the scheduled match date.

Historical context for Italian domestic football markets shows that home advantage typically commands 45–55% implied probability in Serie A, with visiting sides ranging from 25–35% depending on relative league position and recent form. The current 16% probability for Cremonese suggests the market is pricing either significant away-side strength, recent Cremonese underperformance, or injury/suspension concerns affecting the home team. Comparable markets from the 2024–25 Serie A season indicate that clubs finishing in the lower half of the table rarely exceed 20% win probability when facing mid-table opponents at home, suggesting this pricing aligns with established patterns rather than representing an outlier.

Traders should monitor team news releases from both clubs in the week preceding the match, particularly confirmation of squad availability and any managerial changes. Serie A fixture schedules and European competition calendars—should either side be involved in concurrent continental play—materially affect squad rotation decisions. From a regulatory standpoint, this market falls within German GlüStV oversight if accessed from Germany, whilst US CFTC reach extends to US-domiciled traders. The no-KYC threshold of $1,500 applies to aggregate positions; traders exceeding this exposure across prediction markets typically trigger standard identity verification requirements regardless of jurisdiction.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.