Nashville SC vs. New York City FC

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Nashville SC will travel to New York City FC for a Major League Soccer fixture on 23 May 2026. The current implied probability of 25% suggests the market perceives Nashville as a significant underdog, despite the match being contested at a neutral or away venue context. Settlement occurs shortly after the final whistle, with the window closing at 00:30 UTC on 24 May.

Historical MLS results between these franchises show competitive variance. Nashville SC has developed into a mid-table side since their 2020 entry, whilst NYCFC has cycled through periods of playoff contention and rebuilding. The 25% probability reflects neither team's recent form dominance but rather baseline expectations for a mid-season fixture where both sides typically field full squads. Comparable May-stage MLS markets have shown that away-side probabilities often compress when teams approach fixture congestion, particularly if either side faces concurrent continental competition or injury concerns.

Traders should monitor team news releases and official MLS injury reports through the week preceding the match. NYCFC's squad depth in midfield and Nashville's defensive consistency represent the primary performance variables. Weather conditions at Yankee Stadium—particularly wind patterns affecting play—occasionally surface in pre-match analysis. The settlement window's tight closure (within 90 minutes of final whistle) means live-market movements during the second half will be constrained. Under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks, this market remains accessible to traders without KYC verification up to $1,500 notional exposure, though jurisdictional restrictions apply for certain US states and EU residents.

Methodology

We track Nashville SC vs. New York City FC on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.