Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees are scheduled to meet in the Bronx on 22 May at 7:05pm ET, with the market currently implying a 43% chance of a Rays win. That pricing sits against a modest recent edge for Tampa Bay in the standings and a stronger Yankees power profile on the season, with ESPN listing New York on 73 home runs to Tampa Bay’s 41 and the Yankees also ahead in slugging. In recent head-to-heads, Tampa Bay has not been dominant enough to make the outright result one-way traffic, which is why a sub-50% reading is plausible even with the Rays’ better record. For context, comparable MLB single-game markets tend to move more on confirmed starters and line-up news than on broad season records.

For traders, the main catalysts are the announced starting pitchers, any late scratches, and whether the game proceeds as scheduled, as the settlement window remains open through 29 May if there is any postponement and a make-up is played. NBC Sports reported the opener as a high-profile series with the market already shifting around the moneyline and total, and that sort of pre-game adjustment often reflects bullpen usage, weather, and confirmed bats rather than headline win-loss records alone. From an access standpoint, prediction market availability can differ by jurisdiction: German GlüStV rules may restrict or shape how residents can participate, while the US CFTC has asserted reach over certain event-contract activity. “No-KYC up to $1,500” means a user may be able to trade to that cumulative limit without full identity verification, but it does not remove country restrictions, tax reporting obligations, or platform-specific compliance checks for this market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.