New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 24 May 2026, the New York Mets will face the Miami Marlins in a regular-season Major League Baseball fixture at 1:40 PM Eastern Time. The market currently reflects a 46% implied probability of a Mets victory, suggesting near-parity in trader expectations. Under MLB rules, the game will proceed unless weather or unforeseen circumstances force postponement; any such delay extends the settlement window to 31 May at 17:40 UTC, allowing completion before final resolution. A cancelled game with no rescheduled make-up would trigger a 50-50 split resolution, as would any tied result—a rare occurrence in modern baseball but contractually material for market participants.

Historical matchup data between these franchises shows the Mets have maintained a marginal edge in recent seasons, though the Marlins' home-field advantage at loanDepot park in Miami carries measurable weight in single-game outcomes. The current 46% probability sits below the Mets' longer-term win rate against Miami, suggesting the market may be pricing in specific roster or pitching-matchup factors for this particular date. Comparable markets on identical fixtures typically settle within 2–3 percentage points of opening odds when no injury announcements or late roster moves intervene.

Traders should monitor official MLB injury reports through 24 May, particularly regarding starting pitchers confirmed for each side. Announcements of key player absences or weather alerts for Miami can shift implied probabilities materially in the 72 hours before first pitch. From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under German GlüStV provisions where applicable to EU-based traders, whilst US CFTC oversight applies to US-domiciled participants. Markets settling under £1,500 (approximately $1,500 USD) typically operate without enhanced KYC requirements in certain jurisdictions, though individual trader status and location determine actual compliance obligations.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.