New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Mets will host the Miami Marlins on 23 May at 4:10 PM Eastern Time in a regular-season Major League Baseball fixture. The market resolves to YES if the Mets win; NO if the Marlins prevail. Should postponement occur, settlement extends until completion; cancellation without a make-up game or a tied result triggers a 50–50 split. Official MLB statistics serve as the binding resolution source.

The 26% implied probability for a Mets victory reflects their recent competitive standing relative to Miami. Historically, the Mets have maintained a stronger win percentage against the Marlins over recent seasons, though divisional matchups often compress traditional strength differentials. Comparable late-May regular-season games between these franchises have typically favoured the higher-seeded or better-record team, yet single-game variance remains substantial. Current roster depth, injury status, and pitching matchups—particularly starter assignment—materially influence outcome probabilities in such head-to-head contests.

Traders should monitor roster announcements through late May, particularly any injuries to key position players or starting pitchers for either side. Weather conditions at Miami's ballpark and any schedule adjustments affecting rest days merit attention. Under German GlüStV regulations, this market remains accessible to EU residents where licensed; US CFTC oversight applies to US-domiciled traders, though prediction markets on sports outcomes occupy a distinct regulatory envelope from derivatives. The no-KYC threshold of $1,500 USD applies to this specific market on compliant platforms, meaning traders below that cumulative exposure threshold may participate without full identity verification, subject to platform policy and jurisdiction.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.