Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Miami Marlins travel to New York on 29 May for an evening fixture against the Mets at 7:10 PM ET. This market settles on the official result as recorded by Major League Baseball; postponements extend the settlement window until completion, whilst cancellations without rescheduling or tied games trigger a 50-50 split resolution.

The 18% implied probability for a Marlins victory reflects the Mets' structural advantage in home contests and recent head-to-head records. Historically, the Mets have won approximately 55–60% of matchups against Miami over the past five seasons, with home-field effects typically worth 3–5 percentage points in regular-season baseball. The current odds suggest the market is pricing the Marlins as underdogs, consistent with their lower win-total projections and roster depth relative to New York's rotation strength.

Traders should monitor pitching assignments and injury status through late May, as rotation changes materially shift game probabilities. Recent roster moves—including any trades or call-ups announced by either club—affect bullpen availability and offensive lineup composition. Weather conditions at Citi Field, particularly wind direction and temperature, influence ball carry distance and play outcomes. The settlement window extends to 5 June 2026, allowing time for any postponement rescheduling. Under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks, this market remains accessible to retail traders in most jurisdictions; the no-KYC threshold of $1,500 USD applies to aggregate positions across prediction markets, meaning positions below that tier typically avoid enhanced identity verification requirements, though platform-specific terms govern final eligibility.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.