Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is an MLB game between the Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers, scheduled to begin at 1:10pm ET on Saturday, 27 June 2026 at Comerica Park in Detroit. The Astros, currently 40–44 and fourth in the AL West, face the Tigers, who sit at 35–47 and fourth in the AL Central. The market resolves to "Houston Astros" if they win the game, and to "Detroit Tigers" if they win; a postponement keeps the market open until completion, while a cancellation or tie forces a 50–50 resolution.

Historical precedents in MLB prediction markets show that when crowd-implied probabilities hover near 51%, the outcome often reflects a narrow margin where team form and pitching matchups outweigh raw standings. Recent picks from analysts like Hans Geevers and Jason Sharpe favour the Tigers despite the Astros’ better recent record, noting the Astros have won three of their last four games but the Tigers possess a stronger home-field edge in this specific matchup[1][2]. This divergence suggests the 51% YES probability is not a strong signal but a balanced market awaiting a catalyst.

Traders should monitor pre-game lineup announcements, particularly any injuries or scratches affecting key pitchers or batters, as these can shift momentum instantly. The MLB preview notes a player was scratched from the lineup due to back tightness just hours before the game, a dependency that could alter the Tigers’ offensive output[4]. Additionally, real-time box scores from The Athletic and ESPN will provide immediate settlement data once the game concludes[3][7]. For accessibility, German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks permit "no-KYC up to $1,500" for this market, allowing traders to participate without identity verification under these thresholds, though compliance remains subject to local regulatory reach.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.