Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cleveland Guardians travel to Philadelphia on 23 May for a regular-season Major League Baseball fixture against the Phillies, with first pitch at 4:05 PM Eastern Time. The market resolves to the Guardians if they win; to the Phillies if Philadelphia prevails. A postponement keeps the market open until completion; cancellation or a tied result triggers 50-50 settlement. The current crowd-implied probability of 39 percent for a Guardians victory reflects modest confidence in the away side, consistent with historical home-field advantage in baseball, where hosts win approximately 54 percent of games across full seasons.

The Guardians finished 2024 with a 92-70 record and a division title, whilst the Phillies posted 95-67 and reached the National League Championship Series. Head-to-head records, recent form, and pitching matchups—particularly starter assignment and bullpen availability—drive meaningful shifts in prediction market odds. Traders should monitor injury reports released 24 hours before game time, weather conditions at Citizens Bank Park (relevant for ball carry and visibility), and any roster moves announced by either franchise. The settlement window closes 30 May at 20:05 UTC, allowing approximately one week for official MLB statistics to be finalised and published.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under German GlüStV provisions where applicable, with US CFTC reach extending to certain participants depending on domicile and position size. Markets settling under £1,500 typically fall outside Know Your Customer requirements in several jurisdictions, though individual traders should verify their local regulatory status. The underlying event's binary outcome and fixed resolution date provide clarity for settlement purposes across multiple regulatory frameworks.

Methodology

This page reviews Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.