Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legal UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
77% | 23% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
77% | 23% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 77% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 73% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 64% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 62% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 62% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 56% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 55% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| Game 4 Winner | 49% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 49% |
| Game 1 Winner | 48% |
| Game 2 Winner | 48% |
| Game 3 Winner | 48% |
| Match Winner | 46% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 46% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 45% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 39% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 38% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 38% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 38% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 37% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5) | 37% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 37% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 37% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 36% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 35% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 34% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 34% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 21% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 20% |
| Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+2.5) | 18% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 11% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 6% |
Market context
The LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 77% YES. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Bilibili Gaming and T1 in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 4 at 4:00AM ET. This market will …
Methodology
This overview of LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Legal UK has a different geo footprint.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Legal UK stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Legal UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Legal UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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