Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is a WNBA match between the Phoenix Mercury and Indiana Fever, played on 24 June 2026 at 7:30 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, where the Mercury secured an 111–109 victory[3]. This outcome aligns with the market’s current 100% YES probability for the Phoenix Mercury, reflecting a decisive result rather than a speculative forecast.

Historically, similar WNBA markets with 100% implied probability have resolved correctly when one team held a clear performance edge, as seen when Caitlin Clark’s Fever (10–7) faced the Mercury (5–13) in prior matchups where the Mercury’s superior finishing proved decisive[2]. Such cases frame the current probability as a factual reflection of team strength rather than an overconfident bet, especially given the Mercury’s recent win over the Fever in this specific contest[3].

Traders should monitor official WNBA announcements regarding schedule changes, player availability, or game postponements, as these are the only dependencies that could alter resolution conditions. Recent coverage from ESPN 1530 confirms the game’s confirmed time, venue, and broadcast channels, reinforcing the event’s certainty[7]. From a regulatory standpoint, German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks permit low-KYC access up to $1,500 for sports markets, enhancing accessibility for this specific Phoenix Mercury outcome without requiring full identity verification.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.