UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Prelims)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The featherweight prelim between **Otari Tanzilovi** and **Shane Collins** has already been decided in the cage, with UFC stats recording Collins as the winner by unanimous decision over three rounds. That makes the market’s current **0% YES** reading easier to interpret than a live pre-fight line: the official UFC result points decisively away from Tanzilovi, and markets keyed to the winner typically track the sanctioned verdict rather than fan expectation or media narrative.[7]

For context, this is the sort of low-liquidity fight market where early pricing can look extreme until the official result is posted and reflected across sources. Tanzilovi’s UFC profile noted a long lay-off and a move to featherweight, while fight listings described the bout as a UFC Fight Night prelim between debutants, which is the kind of set-up that can produce sharp moves once weigh-ins, medical clearance and the final bout order are known.[5][4][6] In comparable UFC markets, the decisive catalyst is usually the official bout result rather than pre-fight hype, especially when the settlement rule allows for a separate **50-50** outcome if the contest is a draw or no contest.[2]

On accessibility, the regulatory angle matters as much as the sporting one. If the platform serves German users, the **GlüStV** framework is relevant because it treats online games of chance as tightly regulated and commonly blocks or restricts access where a product is deemed gambling rather than a permitted financial instrument. In the United States, the **CFTC** can reach event-contract style products if they fall within its jurisdiction, so access and enforcement can differ materially by venue and user location. Where a venue offers **no-KYC up to $1,500**, that usually means smaller activity can be completed with lighter identity checks, but it does not remove residency, sanctions or platform-rule restrictions, and it matters less for settlement than for whether a trader can open the position at all.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.