UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Allan Nascimento and Mitch Raposo are scheduled to meet at flyweight on the UFC Fight Night prelims, with the bout now positioned under the Kape vs Horiguchi card after the UFC said Raposo’s illness led to the fight being moved from UFC Winnipeg to June 20 in Las Vegas.[2][7] That matters for market reading because a 0% crowd-implied probability effectively says the crowd sees no live path for the listed outcome at present, but the official UFC bout listing and scheduled start remain the key settlement anchors.[4][7]

Historically, markets like this tend to move only when the final pre-fight status changes: weigh-in completion, late injury news, bout order changes, or a cancellation that converts the market to a non-fight outcome. Here, the most relevant comparison is the UFC’s own injury-driven rescheduling of the pairing, which shows the bout has already depended on a prior medical issue rather than a stable long-run booking.[2] For traders, the main comparable risk is another late withdrawal or a change to a no contest, draw, or postponement beyond the settlement window, because those are the outcomes that would trigger the market’s 50-50 path.

The regulatory frame is also practical: in Germany, UFC-linked betting-style products can fall into the GlüStV regime, so access and marketing may be restricted even when the event itself is globally visible; in the United States, CFTC reach is relevant if the contract is treated as a derivatives-style event market rather than ordinary sports betting. “No-KYC up to $1,500” means a user may be able to reach limited exposure without full identity verification, but that does not remove jurisdictional blocks, withdrawal checks, or venue-level compliance limits, so accessibility for this specific market can still depend on the user’s country and the platform’s controls.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.