San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 13 June 2026, the San Diego Padres travel to Baltimore to face the Orioles in a regular-season Major League Baseball fixture. The match begins at 4:05 PM Eastern Time, with settlement occurring by 20 June 2026 at 20:05 UTC. Resolution depends on official MLB final statistics; postponement extends the market window, whilst cancellation without a rescheduled game or a tied result triggers a 50–50 split.

The 100% crowd-implied probability reflects either exceptional confidence in one team's superiority or sparse liquidity at the time of snapshot. Historical precedent suggests single-game MLB markets rarely sustain extreme probabilities once trading volume increases. Comparable regular-season matchups between mid-tier franchises typically settle within 45–55% ranges unless one roster carries demonstrable injury absences or recent form divergence exceeding three consecutive losses. The Padres and Orioles occupy similar competitive tiers; absence of playoff implications in June typically dampens sharp action.

Traders should monitor roster announcements through 12 June, particularly starting pitcher confirmation and any last-minute injury reports affecting position players. Weather conditions in Baltimore—notably humidity and wind direction affecting fly-ball distances—merit attention given the Orioles' home-field advantage. Under German GlüStV frameworks, this market remains accessible to EU traders; US CFTC reach extends to US-domiciled participants regardless of broker location. Markets settling under $1,500 notional exposure typically bypass enhanced KYC requirements in most jurisdictions, though individual broker policies vary. Traders should verify their platform's specific thresholds before committing capital.

Methodology

We track San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.