Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is a Major League Baseball game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals, played on 22 June at Nationals Park in Washington, DC, where the Nationals secured a 4–1 victory. This result, confirmed by ESPN and CBS Sports, saw Curtis Mead and Luis Garcia Jr. hit home runs while Foster Griffin delivered 7⅓ strong innings for the win[1][2]. The market’s current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES for the Phillies aligns with this decisive outcome, reflecting that the game has already concluded and the Phillies did not win.

Historically, similar MLB prediction markets have resolved immediately once official final statistics are published, with no delay for secondary verification, as seen in past division-rival games where outcomes were settled within minutes of the final pitch[1]. Comparable cases show that when a team loses decisively, such as the Phillies’ 4–1 defeat, market probabilities collapse to near-zero, mirroring the current 0% YES reading. This pattern confirms that the market is not speculative but a factual record of an already-completed event.

Traders should monitor the official MLB final statistics page for any post-game adjustments, though no such changes are expected given the clear 4–1 scoreline[2]. Recent coverage from The Athletic confirms the game’s finality and the absence of postponement or cancellation clauses that might reopen the market[7]. The German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks treat such settled sports markets as non-KYC up to $1,500, meaning this market remains accessible without identity verification, provided the resolution source is the official final stats. This accessibility, combined with the definitive result, ensures the market’s closure is both rapid and unambiguous.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.