New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming MLB contest pits the New York Yankees against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park in Detroit, with first pitch scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET on Monday, 22 June 2026. The Yankees, boasting a 46–30 record, enter as the -133 money-line favourite, while the Tigers sit at 33–44 and face a pitching duel between Framber Valdez and Gerrit Cole[1][3]. Current crowd-implied probability of a Yankees win stands at 14% YES, a figure that diverges sharply from the bookmakers’ pricing and suggests either a market inefficiency or a specific, unpublicised risk factor traders must scrutinise[1][4].

Historically, similar discrepancies between bookmaker odds and crowd-implied probabilities in MLB markets have preceded sharp corrections once line-up confirmations or injury reports surface, as seen in the 2024 ALCS where a 12% crowd probability for a home win flipped to 68% post-pitching announcement[1][7]. Comparable cases show that when a team like the Yankees is favoured by money-line but underpriced by crowd sentiment, the catalyst is often a late bullpen change or a weather-dependent delay, both of which remain unconfirmed for this fixture[1][3].

Traders should monitor real-time updates on the starting pitchers’ health and any potential rain delays, as the over/under is set at 8 runs, indicating a high-scoring expectation that could swing the outcome if the game is shortened[1][4]. Recent pre-game analysis from CBS Sports highlights Valdez’s struggle against Cole since 2022, a dependency that could amplify volatility if the Yankees’ offence fails to capitalise early[3][7]. For accessibility, German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks permit ‘no-KYC up to $1,500’ for this market, allowing immediate participation without identity verification, though regulatory oversight remains active for settlements beyond that threshold[1][5]. Settlement concludes 22 June 2026 at 22:40 UTC, with postponed games remaining open until completion[1][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.