Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the second game of a four-game MLB series between the Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers, scheduled for Friday, 26 June at Comerica Park in Detroit, with first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Astros, currently 40–43, face the Tigers at 34–47, a matchup that has already seen the Tigers dominate the opening contest with an 8–0 victory on 26 June, where Venezuelan pitchers Montero and De Jesus combined for a five-hit shutout[3]. This historical precedent of a lopsided Tigers win frames the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the Astros as a rational reflection of recent form rather than an anomaly, mirroring past cases where a team’s immediate dominance in a series skewed prediction markets decisively against the underperforming opponent.

Traders should monitor the official starting lineups announced by MLB shortly before the game, as pitcher rotations and batting order adjustments could shift momentum, alongside any weather updates for Comerica Park that might delay or alter play conditions[8]. Recent boxscore data confirms the Tigers’ pitching strength and the Astros’ offensive struggles in this series, suggesting that lineup stability is a key dependency for any probability shift[5]. While regulatory frameworks like the German GlüStV and US CFTC rules impose KYC thresholds, this market’s “no-KYC up to $1,500” clause enhances accessibility for smaller traders, allowing participation without identity verification for stakes within that limit, a feature that aligns with broader trends in decentralised prediction platforms.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.