Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Detroit Tigers face the Cleveland Guardians in a regular-season Major League Baseball fixture on 12 June at 7:10 PM Eastern Time. The market currently reflects near-even odds at 49 per cent for a Tigers victory, suggesting traders perceive marginal advantage to the Guardians. Settlement occurs on 19 June, allowing a week for postponement resolution should weather or scheduling conflicts arise.

Historical matchup data between these AL Central rivals shows competitive balance over recent seasons, though the Guardians have held a slight edge in head-to-head records since 2021. The current probability sits within the typical range for games between evenly matched division opponents, where pitching matchups and recent form carry substantial weight. Comparable games in this fixture—particularly those occurring in mid-June when both teams have established their seasonal trajectory—have historically resolved within 2–3 percentage points of pre-game implied probabilities, suggesting the market has adequately priced available information.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements, which typically confirm 48–72 hours before game time, as these frequently shift probabilities by 3–5 points depending on recent performance and injury status. Recent roster transactions, particularly any mid-season acquisitions or disabled-list movements, may also influence the line. From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under CFTC oversight in the United States and falls within German GlüStV parameters for EU-based traders. The no-KYC threshold of $1,500 USD applies to this specific market, permitting smaller positions without identity verification on compliant platforms, though aggregate exposure across multiple markets may trigger verification requirements.

Methodology

We track Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.