Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cleveland Guardians are scheduled to play the Houston Astros in Houston, with the market resolving on the official final result of that game. Recent comparable form matters here: Houston won the previous meeting 9-3 on 19 June, which gives the Astros a short-term results edge, while the listed pre-game pitching match-up had Cleveland’s Joey Cantillo opposite Houston’s Spencer Arrighetti, a setup that typically keeps baseball win probabilities sensitive to late line-up and bullpen information.[1][2][3]

For a market showing **0% YES**, the practical question is whether the event is still live and whether any data feed has lagged the actual schedule or outcome. The game was listed for 20 June at 7:15 pm ET, and live coverage sources showed it as a regular season MLB fixture between Cleveland (40-36) and Houston (36-41), so a zero-implied price is more consistent with a stale or dislocated market than with the underlying sporting setup.[4][5] Traders should watch for confirmed first pitch, any postponement or make-up scheduling, and official completion before assuming the contract can settle.[5]

On accessibility, this kind of sports contract sits within a broader regulatory split: prediction markets offered to US users can be analysed through the lens of CFTC reach, while German participation is shaped by the Glücksspielstaatsvertrag (GlüStV), which can limit access depending on local authorisation and platform controls. “No-KYC up to $1,500” means a user may be able to trade within that cumulative threshold without full identity verification, but it does not remove geography, sanctions, AML, or venue-specific eligibility checks, so availability for this specific MLB market still depends on the platform’s jurisdictional gating and account status.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.