Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On Monday, 22 June 2026, the Chicago White Sox defeated the Cleveland Guardians 6–5 at Rate Field in Chicago, with Sam Antonacci delivering a walk-off two-run single in the bottom of the ninth to secure the victory [1][6]. The game, which saw Cleveland score twice in the top of the ninth before losing the lead, ended the White Sox’s three-game losing streak and tied them for first place in the AL Central with the Guardians [1][8]. This real-world outcome directly determines the resolution of the prediction market, which currently shows a 0% probability for the Guardians winning, reflecting the completed result.

Historically, markets with 0% implied probability for a team that has already lost are typically settled immediately once official statistics are confirmed, as seen in prior MLB prediction markets where walk-off results triggered instant resolution without delay [2][7]. Comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons show that once a game concludes with a definitive winner, regulatory frameworks such as the US CFTC’s reach and German GlüStV provisions require prompt settlement to prevent arbitrage or prolonged exposure [1]. The absence of a Guardians win is not speculative but factual, aligning with how past markets treated similar outcomes where the losing team had no chance of reversal.

Traders should monitor official MLB confirmations and any potential postponement notices, though the game has already concluded, making further dependencies irrelevant [4]. Recent coverage from MLB and ESPN confirms the final score and walk-off nature of the result, eliminating ambiguity [6][7]. For platform accessibility, the “no-KYC up to $1,500” rule allows users to settle this market without identity verification, provided their total exposure remains under the threshold, enhancing liquidity while complying with KYC exemptions under current EU and US regulations [1]. This specific market’s accessibility is thus broadened for casual participants, though all settlements remain bound by official final statistics.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.