Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and New York Mets, played on 25 June 2026 at Citi Field in New York, where the Cubs secured a decisive victory to complete a four-game series sweep. Historical precedents from recent MLB seasons show that when a team sweeps a series, especially one involving a dominant away performance like the Cubs’ win at Wrigley followed by four at Citi Field, the crowd-implied probability of 100% YES aligns with actual outcomes, as such sweeps rarely end in ties or cancellations[1][7]. Comparable cases from the 2024 and 2025 seasons confirm that series sweeps correlate strongly with single-game resolution favouring the sweeping team, with no recorded instances of 50-50 splits in similar contexts[2].

Traders should monitor official MLB announcements regarding weather delays, lineup changes, or potential postponements, though the game has already concluded with the Cubs winning. Recent coverage from ESPN highlights the final score and play-by-play timeline, confirming the Cubs’ dominance and eliminating uncertainty about the result[3]. The settlement window ending on 2 July 2026 is irrelevant now, as the event is complete. Regarding regulatory accessibility, German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach do not alter the fact that the market has resolved; however, the “no-KYC up to $1,500” feature previously allowed users to access such markets without identity verification, enhancing accessibility for smaller traders before resolution[8]. This specific market’s accessibility was thus broadened for users under the threshold, though post-resolution, only historical data remains accessible.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.