Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the MLB game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Los Angeles Angels, played on 22 June 2026 at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, which the Orioles won 6–1 after Kyle Bradish pitched eight shutout innings[3][7]. This outcome confirms the 100% YES crowd-implied probability that the Orioles would win, resolving the market decisively in their favour[3].

Historically, similar MLB markets where one team dominated on pitching and early scoring have resolved with near-certainty once the game concluded, mirroring cases where a 6–1 lead after eight innings left no room for reversal[3][8]. Comparable games in the 2025 and 2026 seasons with identical scorelines at the same stage also settled with 100% confidence in the leading team, framing this result as consistent with established patterns rather than an outlier[3].

Traders should monitor official MLB announcements regarding game postponements or cancellations, as these would keep the market open until completion, though no such disruptions occurred here[1]. Recent coverage from ESPN confirms the final score and key player performances, providing the primary resolution source for this market[3]. For accessibility, German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks permit “no-KYC up to $1,500” trades, allowing retail participants to engage without identity verification, though this specific market has already settled based on the completed game[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.