United States vs. Paraguay - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States and Paraguay will meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage fixture on 12 June 2026 at 9:00 PM ET. This market settles on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any outcome not explicitly listed resolves to "Any Other Score." The 11% crowd probability assigned to this exact-score outcome reflects the inherent difficulty of predicting a specific scoreline in international football; most World Cup matches between nations of comparable strength distribute probability across multiple plausible results rather than concentrating it on a single line.

Historical precedent suggests that exact-score markets in World Cup fixtures typically see winning probabilities between 8% and 15% for mid-range outcomes (1–1, 1–0, 2–1 draws and narrow victories), with lower odds on more extreme scorelines. The US and Paraguay have met twice in competitive play, drawing 0–0 in 2016 Copa América qualifying and drawing 2–2 in 2015 Copa América. These encounters indicate defensive solidity on both sides and a tendency toward open play rather than low-scoring stalemates, which may inform whether traders expect this match to cluster around single-goal margins or higher-scoring affairs.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates from both federations in the weeks preceding the match, as absences of key attacking or defensive personnel can shift expected goal distributions. Fixture congestion in the 2025–26 club season, particularly for US-based players in European leagues, may affect fitness levels. The broader World Cup group composition—determined by draw—will also influence tactical approach; if either team enters the match needing a specific result to progress, attacking intent may increase. Settlement occurs at 01:00 UTC on 13 June 2026, allowing for any fixture delays or rescheduling within the tournament window.

Methodology

This page reviews United States vs. Paraguay - Exact Score across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Legal UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.