Türkiye vs. Paraguay - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Türkiye and Paraguay meet in a World Cup group-stage game that, for this market, will be settled on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time only; extra time and penalties do not count. The current crowd-implied price of 8% for **YES** suggests traders see this exact score as a low-frequency outcome rather than the match’s central line.

The main historical reference point is how prediction markets usually treat exact-score contracts: the path to settlement is narrow, so even a reasonably plausible match result can sit at a single-digit probability unless the scoreline is widely expected. These sides have little recent head-to-head history to anchor the distribution, with the only listed prior meeting ending 0–0 in 1995, while recent preview coverage points to a modest scoring expectation rather than a shootout. FOX Sports lists the game with a combined goals line of 2.5, and SI’s preview projects Türkiye 2–0 Paraguay, both of which are consistent with a market that is concentrated on a small set of scorelines rather than any one exact number.[1][2][4]

For traders, the key catalysts are the confirmed line-ups, late injury or rotation news, and any scheduling or venue changes before kick-off at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara; Sky Sports and FIFA both place the match on 20 June local listing time, with FIFA’s match-centre confirming the fixture in Group D.[2][3][8] From a regulatory and access standpoint, German GlüStV rules matter because they can affect whether a user in Germany can legally access or participate in this kind of sports prediction market at all, while the US CFTC’s reach is relevant because event contracts may fall within US derivatives oversight depending on how the product is structured. “No-KYC up to $1,500” means a user can typically trade or withdraw within that threshold without full identity verification, but it does not change jurisdictional blocking, sanctions screening, or any platform-specific limits on this exact market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.