Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legal UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots | 93% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| César Huerta: 1+ shots | 50% |
| César Huerta: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Armando González: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Armando González: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Armando González: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Carlos Acevedo: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Moisés Ramírez: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Moisés Ramírez: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Armando González: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Armando González: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| César Huerta: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| César Huerta: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| César Huerta: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| César Huerta: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| César Huerta: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Armando González: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Armando González: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Armando González: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Alexis Vega: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enner Valencia: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| César Huerta: 3+ shots | 50% |
| César Huerta: 4+ shots | 50% |
| César Huerta: 5+ shots | 50% |
| César Huerta: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Santiago Giménez: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Armando González: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Enner Valencia: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Enner Valencia: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Julián Quiñones: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Julián Quiñones: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Santiago Giménez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| César Huerta: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Enner Valencia: 1+ shots | 48% |
| Alexis Vega: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Carlos Acevedo: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Carlos Acevedo: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Carlos Acevedo: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Moisés Ramírez: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Moisés Ramírez: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Enner Valencia: 3+ shots | 47% |
| Enner Valencia: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Armando González: 2+ goals | 33% |
| César Huerta: 2+ goals | 33% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ goals | 23% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Alexis Vega: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Armando González: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ assists | 20% |
| César Huerta: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Alexis Vega: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Armando González: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 1+ goals | 20% |
| César Huerta: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ assists | 20% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Santiago Giménez: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 1+ assists | 20% |
| Armando González: 2+ assists | 18% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 3+ goals | 18% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 3+ goals | 18% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 2+ assists | 18% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ assists | 18% |
| Alexis Vega: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| César Huerta: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Alexis Vega: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Alexis Vega: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Armando González: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Guillermo Martínez: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Jeremy Arévalo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Santiago Giménez: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Brian Gutiérrez: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Kevin Rodríguez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Santiago Giménez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Jordy Caicedo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Enner Valencia: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Enner Valencia: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Enner Valencia: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Julián Quiñones: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Julián Quiñones: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Raúl Jiménez: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Enner Valencia: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Enner Valencia: 2+ assists | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to mexico vs. ecuador - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Mexico and Ecuador, scheduled for June 30 at 9:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of Mexico vs. Ecuador - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Legal UK?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Legal UK stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Legal UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
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