France vs. Iraq - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

France meet Iraq in a FIFA World Cup group match in Philadelphia, with kick-off listed for 5:00 p.m. ET on 22 June and the settlement window ending shortly after the scheduled start time. ESPN’s current match page prices France as a heavy favourite, with an implied win probability well above Iraq’s, which helps explain why a broad “more markets” question can still sit around 71% YES if traders expect the event to generate extra in-play or side-market listings rather than needing an upset on the pitch.[2][1]

For context, this kind of market is read mainly through venue and platform mechanics rather than footballing quality alone. In Germany, the GlüStV framework matters because online betting-style products face stricter state rules, including licence and consumer-protection constraints that can affect whether a user can participate at all. In the US, the CFTC’s reach is relevant because federally regulated derivatives and event-contract products are assessed differently from ordinary sportsbook wagering, so access can depend on where the platform is structured and where the user is located. “No-KYC up to $1,500” typically means smaller balances or transfers may be possible with lighter identity checks, which widens accessibility for casual users but still leaves limits on size, jurisdiction, and withdrawal processing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.