Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legal UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Jonathan David: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ shots | 95% |
| Yassine Bounou: 2+ saves | 76% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots | 75% |
| Jonathan David: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Jonathan David: 3+ shots | 60% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ shots on target | 60% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ shots | 56% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ shots | 53% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Cyle Larin: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Promise David: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Promise David: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals | 51% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ assists | 51% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Cyle Larin: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Cyle Larin: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Cyle Larin: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Cyle Larin: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Jonathan David: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Jonathan David: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Promise David: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Promise David: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Promise David: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cyle Larin: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cyle Larin: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cyle Larin: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jonathan David: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jonathan David: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jonathan David: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Promise David: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Promise David: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Promise David: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dayne St. Clair: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Dayne St. Clair: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Dayne St. Clair: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Dayne St. Clair: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Yassine Bounou: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Yassine Bounou: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Yassine Bounou: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cyle Larin: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cyle Larin: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cyle Larin: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cyle Larin: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jonathan David: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jonathan David: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jonathan David: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Brahim Díaz: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jonathan David: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 1+ goals | 30% |
| Jonathan David: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ shots | 20% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ assists | 14% |
| Jonathan David: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Promise David: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Cyle Larin: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Jonathan David: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Brahim Díaz: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Cyle Larin: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Promise David: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Soufiane Rahimi: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Cyle Larin: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Jonathan David: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Cyle Larin: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Promise David: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Ayoub El Kaabi: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Cyle Larin: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jonathan David: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Tani Oluwaseyi: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Ismael Saibari: 5+ shots | 1% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 3+ shots | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Ismael Saibari: 2+ assists | 0% |
Market context
Canada vs. Morocco - Player Props — current market-implied probability: 100%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Canada and Morocco, scheduled for July 4 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of Canada vs. Morocco - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Legal UK?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Legal UK stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Legal UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
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