Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legal UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots | 96% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots | 95% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots | 81% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots | 80% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots | 66% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots | 51% |
| Alisson: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alisson: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Alisson: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 44% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shots | 43% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots | 42% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target | 39% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots | 36% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 35% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves | 34% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists | 34% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots on target | 33% |
| Alisson: 3+ saves | 33% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 32% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals + assists | 32% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists | 30% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 28% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists | 28% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 27% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target | 27% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots on target | 27% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots | 26% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 26% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target | 26% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists | 25% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Raphinha: 4+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Erling Haaland: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target | 12% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Igor Thiago: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Raphinha: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Raphinha: 5+ shots | 3% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Raphinha: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals | 1% |
Market context
Market consensus: 96% chance of brazil vs. norway - player props. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Norway, scheduled for July 5 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Legal UK has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Legal UK?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Legal UK stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Legal UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
Trade Brazil vs. Norway - Player Props on Polymarket Legal UK
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