Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legal UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ shots | 100% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 90% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 85% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals + assists | 77% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 75% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 75% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 75% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 61% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 52% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ shots | 52% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Edouard Mendy: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Edouard Mendy: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Edouard Mendy: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Edouard Mendy: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 5+ shots | 47% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ shots | 41% |
| Jeremy Doku: 5+ shots | 38% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 32% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots | 25% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ goals | 23% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 4+ shots | 15% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots | 7% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots | 3% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ goals | 2% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ goals | 2% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 1% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 0% |
Market context
The Belgium vs. Senegal - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Belgium and Senegal, scheduled for July 1 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of Belgium vs. Senegal - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Legal UK?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Legal UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Legal UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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