Uzbekistan vs. Colombia - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Uzbekistan and Colombia will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 17 June at 10:00 PM ET. This market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty outcomes. The 7% crowd probability reflects the specificity required: predicting one exact scoreline among dozens of plausible results. Settlement occurs by 18 June 02:00 UTC, allowing for fixture delays or rescheduling without market closure.

Historical World Cup group-stage results between nations of comparable ranking show exact-score markets typically concentrate probability across narrow bands. Colombia has qualified for five consecutive World Cups and finished third in 2014; Uzbekistan qualified for 2018 but missed 2022. When a top-40 ranked side faces a mid-tier opponent in group play, draws and narrow victories (1–0, 2–1) account for roughly 60% of outcomes, whilst scorelines exceeding 3–0 occur in fewer than 8% of such fixtures. The current 7% probability suggests the crowd has distributed likelihood across multiple exact scores rather than backing a single result heavily.

Traders should monitor team news from late May onwards, particularly injury updates to Colombia's attacking players and Uzbekistan's defensive line-up. Fixture scheduling announcements—including potential group-stage rearrangements—may affect preparation time and fatigue levels. Under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks, this market remains accessible to traders in jurisdictions permitting sports prediction wagering; no-KYC access up to $1,500 USD applies where permitted, though individual regulatory status depends on residency and local gaming law. Final squad lists, released approximately two weeks before the tournament, will clarify tactical approach and injury status.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.