Sweden vs. Tunisia - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Sweden and Tunisia will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 14 June at 10:00 PM ET. This market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty outcomes. The 7% crowd probability reflects the specificity required: predicting one exact scoreline from dozens of plausible results. Historical World Cup group-stage matches between these nations' competitive levels show Tunisia has never defeated Sweden in official competition, though both have faced stronger opponents in recent tournaments. Tunisia's 2018 and 2022 World Cup appearances saw them score between 0–2 goals per match; Sweden's 2018 campaign produced similar output in group play before their deeper run. The narrow probability band suggests traders view most explicit scorelines as unlikely, with "Any Other Score" capturing the residual uncertainty.

Regulatory accessibility varies by jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV provisions, prediction markets on sporting events face licensing requirements that affect platform availability in that territory. US CFTC oversight extends to certain binary sports contracts, though prediction markets structured as information markets occupy a distinct legal space. For UK-based traders, no-KYC access up to £1,200 (approximately $1,500) applies to many platforms, permitting smaller positions without identity verification. Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates through official FIFA and national federation channels in the weeks preceding the match, as absences of key players could shift expected goal distributions. Weather conditions at the venue and any late fixture rescheduling would also influence match dynamics, though the settlement window closes 14 June at 02:00 UTC, allowing resolution within hours of final whistle.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.