Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legal UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Dominik Livaković: 2+ saves | 76% |
| Ivor Pandur: 2+ saves | 65% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots | 55% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Rafael Leão: 4+ shots | 52% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots | 51% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 4+ shots | 50% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots | 50% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots | 50% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots | 50% |
| João Félix: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 5+ shots | 50% |
| Toni Fruk: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Trincão: 4+ shots | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| João Félix: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Rafael Leão: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Toni Fruk: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trincão: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trincão: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Trincão: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ivor Pandur: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Ivor Pandur: 5+ saves | 50% |
| José Sá: 2+ saves | 50% |
| José Sá: 3+ saves | 50% |
| José Sá: 4+ saves | 50% |
| José Sá: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ante Budimir: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| João Félix: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marco Pašalić: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Diogo Costa: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Dominik Livaković: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Dominik Livaković: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Dominik Livaković: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Ivan Perišić: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 4+ shots | 37% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Trincão: 1+ shots | 34% |
| João Félix: 1+ shots on target | 34% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals | 31% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 5+ shots | 30% |
| João Félix: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Trincão: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ shots on target | 26% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ shots | 24% |
| João Félix: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists | 23% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ assists | 22% |
| Trincão: 3+ shots | 21% |
| Toni Fruk: 3+ shots | 20% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ shots | 18% |
| Marco Pašalić: 3+ shots | 17% |
| Petar Musa: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Toni Fruk: 5+ shots | 16% |
| João Félix: 2+ shots on target | 15% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 5+ shots | 14% |
| Ivan Perišić: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| João Félix: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Rafael Leão: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Igor Matanović: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| João Félix: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ goals + assists | 13% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ assists | 11% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Francisco Conceição: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Igor Matanović: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Igor Matanović: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Petar Musa: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Toni Fruk: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Trincão: 1+ goals | 10% |
| João Félix: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Petar Musa: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ shots on target | 10% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Marco Pašalić: 2+ goals | 9% |
| Marco Pašalić: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Ivor Pandur: 4+ saves | 9% |
| Petar Musa: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Petar Musa: 3+ goals | 8% |
| Toni Fruk: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Trincão: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Trincão: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Ante Budimir: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Francisco Conceição: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Trincão: 3+ goals | 7% |
| Igor Matanović: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Francisco Conceição: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Marco Pašalić: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Andrej Kramarić: 3+ goals | 5% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Ivan Perišić: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Ante Budimir: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Gonçalo Guedes: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Rafael Leão: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Ante Budimir: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Gonçalo Ramos: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nikola Vlašić: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ivan Perišić: 2+ goals | 1% |
| João Félix: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Rafael Leão: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Igor Matanović: 3+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, portugal vs. croatia - player props stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Portugal and Croatia, scheduled for July 2 at 7:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of Portugal vs. Croatia - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Legal UK has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Legal UK?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Legal UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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