Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legal UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots | 73% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ shots | 70% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots | 64% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots | 60% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots | 56% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Jordan Pickford: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Marcus Rashford: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Oscar Bobb: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ezri Konsa: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Sander Berge: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Patrick Berg: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Jordan Pickford: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bukayo Saka: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Oscar Bobb: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals | 48% |
| Marc Guéhi: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Patrick Berg: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Erling Haaland: 4+ shots | 47% |
| Patrick Berg: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 3+ shots | 46% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ goals | 45% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Harry Kane: 4+ shots | 40% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots | 39% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ shots | 39% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Ørjan Nyland: 4+ saves | 33% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ goals + assists | 33% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots on target | 32% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Sander Berge: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots on target | 31% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Jordan Pickford: 3+ saves | 30% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots | 29% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target | 29% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots on target | 27% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Patrick Berg: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Patrick Berg: 1+ shots on target | 24% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals + assists | 24% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 1+ shots | 23% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ shots on target | 23% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots on target | 23% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Marcus Pedersen: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 1+ shots | 22% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots on target | 22% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ shots on target | 22% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ goals | 20% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ shots on target | 20% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Erling Haaland: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Bukayo Saka: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Jude Bellingham: 4+ shots | 18% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Harry Kane: 5+ shots | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Fredrik Aursnes: 2+ shots | 16% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Anthony Gordon: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Harry Kane: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Kristoffer Ajer: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Sander Berge: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Torbjørn Heggem: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ goals | 13% |
| David Møller Wolfe: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 3+ shots | 13% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Erling Haaland: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Antonio Nusa: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals | 11% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 2+ goals | 11% |
| Noni Madueke: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Declan Rice: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Declan Rice: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Jude Bellingham: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Eberechi Eze: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Noni Madueke: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Antonio Nusa: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Elliot Anderson: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Morgan Rogers: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Oscar Bobb: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Declan Rice: 4+ shots | 6% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Kristian Thorstvedt: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Elliot Anderson: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Marc Guéhi: 1+ shots | 5% |
| Bukayo Saka: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Eberechi Eze: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Marcus Rashford: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Noni Madueke: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Anthony Gordon: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Erling Haaland: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Marcus Rashford: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Morgan Rogers: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Thelo Aasgaard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Jude Bellingham: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Alexander Sørloth: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Andreas Schjelderup: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Anthony Gordon: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Antonio Nusa: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bukayo Saka: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Declan Rice: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Jude Bellingham: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Kristian Thorstvedt: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Martin Ødegaard: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Noni Madueke: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Oscar Bobb: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Nico O’Reilly: 4+ shots | 2% |
| Harry Kane: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Elliot Anderson: 2+ assists | 1% |
Market context
The Norway vs. England - Player Props prediction market currently prices this outcome at 94% YES. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Norway and England, scheduled for July 11 at 5:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of Norway vs. England - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Legal UK has a different geo footprint.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Legal UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Legal UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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