Netherlands vs. Japan - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Netherlands and Japan will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 14 June at 4:00 PM ET. This market settles on the final score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty outcomes. Any result not explicitly listed resolves to "Any Other Score," which typically captures the majority of possible scorelines in football matches.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in football attract low probabilities across individual outcomes due to the combinatorial nature of possible results. The 4% implied probability for this specific scoreline reflects the dispersal of likelihood across dozens of plausible final scores. Netherlands–Japan fixtures have produced varied results; their most recent competitive meeting was a 2014 World Cup group-stage match won 2–1 by the Dutch. Current squad composition, injury status, and tactical preparation closer to June 2026 will materially affect scoring patterns, though these remain unknowable at present.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV provisions, prediction markets operating without a state licence face restrictions, though some platforms maintain exemptions for certain sports betting products. US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives contracts; prediction markets structured as binary options may fall within reach depending on settlement mechanism and participant location. Many platforms offer no-KYC trading up to $1,500 notional exposure, meaning traders can participate without identity verification below that threshold—a practical consideration for smaller positions on low-probability outcomes where capital at risk remains modest.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.