Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legal UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots | 91% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots | 77% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots | 71% |
| Rayan: 1+ shots | 63% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots | 60% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ shots | 56% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals + assists | 54% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots | 54% |
| Endrick: 1+ shots | 54% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Casemiro: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Keito Nakamura: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Raphinha: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Danilo Santos: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Casemiro: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Rayan: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Alisson: 2+ saves | 48% |
| Alisson: 4+ saves | 48% |
| Alisson: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Endrick: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Endrick: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Raphinha: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots on target | 47% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Keito Nakamura: 3+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots | 47% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ shots on target | 47% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 3+ saves | 47% |
| Keisuke Ōsako: 4+ saves | 47% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ shots on target | 47% |
| Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots on target | 47% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Rayan: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Casemiro: 4+ goals + assists | 46% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots | 45% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 4+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ shots | 44% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Daizen Maeda: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals | 39% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ shots on target | 39% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Casemiro: 1+ goals + assists | 37% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Endrick: 2+ shots | 36% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals + assists | 36% |
| Rayan: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Rayan: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals + assists | 31% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ shots | 31% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots | 30% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ shots | 30% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals | 30% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots on target | 29% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots | 28% |
| Alisson: 3+ saves | 28% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Rayan: 2+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ shots | 27% |
| Matheus Cunha: 4+ shots | 25% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals + assists | 25% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists | 24% |
| Rayan: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Endrick: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ shots | 23% |
| Luiz Henrique: 5+ shots | 22% |
| Danilo Santos: 3+ goals + assists | 22% |
| Rayan: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Casemiro: 2+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Casemiro: 1+ shots on target | 20% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ shots on target | 20% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Rayan: 3+ goals + assists | 19% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ shots | 19% |
| Endrick: 4+ shots | 19% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Koki Ogawa: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Matheus Cunha: 5+ shots | 19% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Rayan: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ assists | 17% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 5+ shots | 15% |
| Daizen Maeda: 3+ goals + assists | 15% |
| Rayan: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Casemiro: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Endrick: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Rayan: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals + assists | 14% |
| Luiz Henrique: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Koki Ogawa: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Ayase Ueda: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Rayan: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Neymar Jr: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ shots on target | 11% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 3+ goals | 11% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Igor Thiago: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals | 10% |
| Rayan: 1+ assists | 10% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Luiz Henrique: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Luiz Henrique: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Igor Thiago: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Casemiro: 3+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals + assists | 10% |
| Neymar Jr: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Rayan: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Rayan: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Igor Thiago: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Ayase Ueda: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Neymar Jr: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 3+ goals + assists | 9% |
| Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Endrick: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Casemiro: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Casemiro: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Igor Thiago: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 5+ shots | 8% |
| Raphinha: 1+ shots on target | 7% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Igor Thiago: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Daizen Maeda: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Keito Nakamura: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Neymar Jr: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Danilo Santos: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Ayase Ueda: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Endrick: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Matheus Cunha: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Koki Ogawa: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Luiz Henrique: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Casemiro: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Rayan: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Ayase Ueda: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Koki Ogawa: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Endrick: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lucas Paquetá: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Raphinha: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Danilo Santos: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ayase Ueda: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Casemiro: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Daizen Maeda: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Keito Nakamura: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Matheus Cunha: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Neymar Jr: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Raphinha: 2+ goals | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 91% probability to brazil vs. japan - player props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Brazil and Japan, scheduled for June 29 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This overview of Brazil vs. Japan - Player Props reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Legal UK has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Legal UK?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
- What if regulation changes?
- If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Legal UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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