Palestine vs. Kenya - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Palestine and Kenya will meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 6 June 2026 at 08:30 ET. The market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any result not explicitly listed resolves to "Any Other Score." Should the fixture be postponed, settlement remains pending until completion; cancellation triggers a void resolution. The 100% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific scoreline or sparse liquidity in early-stage pricing for a low-profile friendly between nations ranked 105th and 110th respectively in recent FIFA standings.

Historical precedent for friendlies between lower-ranked sides shows wide variance in outcomes. Palestine's recent record includes 1–1 draws and narrow defeats against regional opponents; Kenya has produced both high-scoring affairs (3–2, 4–1) and goalless stalemates in friendlies. Comparable markets on obscure international matches typically see probability mass concentrate on 0–0, 1–0, and 1–1 outcomes, with tail probabilities distributed across higher scores. The current 100% reading suggests either a single outcome has captured all liquidity or the market remains illiquid ahead of squad announcements.

Traders should monitor team news from both federations, particularly injury updates and squad rotation decisions typical of June friendlies. Venue confirmation and weather conditions in the scheduled location will influence expected goal output. Under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks, this market's accessibility depends on the host platform's licensing; most UK-regulated operators permit KYC-free positions up to £1,000–£1,500 notional value, though exact thresholds vary. Confirmation of the fixture's occurrence and final scheduling remain critical dependencies before settlement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.