IR Iran vs. Gambia

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Active sub-markets

Market context

A FIFA International Friendly between Iran and Gambia is scheduled for 29 May 2026. The match represents a routine fixture in the international football calendar, with no qualifying tournament status or competitive ranking implications. The current crowd-implied probability of 100% YES suggests near-certainty that the match will occur as scheduled.

Historical precedent for international friendlies shows cancellation rates below 2% once fixtures are officially confirmed by both national federations and FIFA. Comparable markets on similar friendlies have typically settled YES when matches proceed on their scheduled date, regardless of final scoreline. The 100% probability reflects standard market confidence in fixture completion rather than any exceptional circumstance affecting Iran–Gambia relations or either nation's football infrastructure.

Traders should monitor official FIFA fixture announcements and statements from both the Football Federation of Iran and the Gambia Football Association for any schedule changes, venue alterations, or withdrawal notices. Regulatory access to this market varies by jurisdiction: UK traders face no specific restrictions under the Gambling Commission's framework for prediction markets; German traders should note that markets settling on sports outcomes fall outside GlüStV scope provided they remain binary event contracts rather than wagering products. US CFTC reach extends to US persons regardless of location, though binary sports event contracts typically fall outside CFTC jurisdiction. The no-KYC threshold of $1,500 applies to aggregate position value across this market, meaning traders can maintain exposure below that level without identity verification on most compliant platforms.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.