Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Karl Poling and Andre Ilagan are scheduled to compete in a professional tennis match at Tyler on 6 June 2026, with the contest originally set for 12:30 PM Eastern Time. The market resolves to the winner of that single match, with a settlement window extending to 13 June 2026 at 16:30 UTC to account for scheduling delays. Should the match be cancelled outright, end in a tie, or remain unfinished beyond seven days without a determined winner, the market settles 50–50.

The 1% implied probability for Poling reflects either a substantial ranking or seeding disparity between the two players, or limited historical data on their head-to-head record. Comparable low-probability markets in professional tennis typically arise when an unseeded or lower-ranked player faces a top-100 opponent; such markets have historically resolved YES between 2–5% of the time when the underlying odds suggest a clear favourite. Traders should examine current ATP or ITF rankings, recent form sheets, and any prior meetings to calibrate whether the crowd probability reflects genuine match dynamics or information scarcity.

Key catalysts include official confirmation of the match proceeding as scheduled—any weather delays, venue changes, or player withdrawals announced before 6 June would trigger the seven-day grace period. Tournament draw releases and injury reports from either player's social media or official ATP communications should be monitored. From a regulatory standpoint, this market remains accessible under the no-KYC threshold of $1,500 USD in most jurisdictions; however, German traders should note GlüStV restrictions on certain prediction markets, whilst US participants remain subject to CFTC oversight of derivative contracts, though prediction markets operate in a distinct legal category from traditional derivatives.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.