Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legal UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
73% | 27% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
73% | 27% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet | 73% |
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet Set 1 Winner | 69% |
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet Set 2 Winner | 69% |
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 62% |
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 52% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 49% |
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 49% |
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet Match O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet Match O/U 21.5 | 48% |
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 45% |
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet Match O/U 22.5 | 41% |
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 33% |
| National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 14% |
Market context
Market consensus: 73% chance of national bank open: rafael jodar vs corentin moutet. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Rafael Jodar and Corentin Moutet in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 6, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will …
Methodology
This overview of National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Corentin Moutet reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Legal UK has a different geo footprint.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Legal UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
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