Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legal UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Set 4 Winner | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Set 3 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 36.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 38.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 40.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev. This market refers to the tennis match between Marin Cilic and Daniil Medvedev in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marin Cilic' if …
Methodology
This overview of Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Legal UK has a different geo footprint.
- Do I need to KYC for Polymarket Legal UK?
- Not for lifetime trading volume under $1,500. Above that threshold, a quick KYC flow kicks in — ID, selfie, approximately 5-10 minutes. The threshold matches FATF travel standards for unregulated crypto platforms.
- How are winnings taxed?
- Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Legal UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
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