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Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev

"Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev" — odds, fees, regulatory status. Polymarket Legal UK as a Polymarket alternative.

Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 Winner 100% Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 3 O/U 8.5 100% Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 3 O/U 10.5 100% Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5 100% Volume: $279K Liquidity: $825K Closes: 8 Jul 2026
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Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legal UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 Winner100%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 3 O/U 8.5100%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 3 O/U 10.5100%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5100%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 3 O/U 9.5100%
Completed Match100%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Total Sets: O/U 3.5100%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 8.5100%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 8.5100%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 36.5100%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-2.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-2.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 4 O/U 8.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 4 O/U 9.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 4 O/U 10.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 9.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 O/U 10.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev0%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Total Sets: O/U 4.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 3 Winner0%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 4 Winner0%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 9.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 1 O/U 10.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 40.50%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Set 2 Winner0%
Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 38.50%

Market context

The Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Daniil Medvedev in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel …

Methodology

This overview of Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.

Resolution & payout

On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.

FAQ

How are winnings taxed?
Tax treatment varies by jurisdiction. In most countries, prediction market gains are treated as ordinary income or capital gains. We cannot provide tax advice — consult a tax professional for your specific situation.
Can I trade anonymously?
Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Legal UK stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
Are prediction markets gambling?
Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
Is there a withdrawal cap?
No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
What if regulation changes?
If regulation changes in your jurisdiction (e.g. prediction markets are banned), Polymarket Legal UK would geo-block the affected region and continue processing withdrawals. Your funds remain withdrawable at any time.
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Related Topics

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