Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Legal UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
81% | 19% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
81% | 19% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 81% |
| S.Y. Noh | 50% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 44% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 38% |
| Maverick McNealy | 36% |
| Jackson Koivun | 33% |
| Corey Conners | 31% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 31% |
| Sam Stevens | 30% |
| Jake Knapp | 29% |
| Tom Kim | 28% |
| Pierceson Coody | 28% |
| Jackson Suber | 28% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 28% |
| Benjamin James | 28% |
| Max Homa | 25% |
| Michael Brennan | 25% |
| Brian Harman | 25% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 23% |
| Michael Kim | 23% |
| Zac Blair | 22% |
| Davis Thompson | 21% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 21% |
| Lucas Glover | 21% |
| Zach Bauchou | 21% |
| Tony Finau | 20% |
| Ricky Castillo | 20% |
| Keith Mitchell | 19% |
| Doug Ghim | 19% |
| Mac Meissner | 19% |
| Taylor Pendrith | 19% |
| Denny McCarthy | 19% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 18% |
| Rico Hoey | 18% |
| Lee Hodges | 18% |
| Keita Nakajima | 18% |
| Max Greyserman | 17% |
| Ben Kohles | 17% |
| Andrew Putnam | 17% |
| Seamus Power | 17% |
| Takumi Kanaya | 17% |
| Kevin Roy | 17% |
| Johnny Keefer | 16% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 16% |
| Casey Jarvis | 16% |
| Taylor Moore | 16% |
| Max McGreevy | 16% |
| Jesper Svensson | 16% |
| Ze-Cheng Dou | 16% |
| Austin Smotherman | 16% |
| Tom Hoge | 16% |
| Steven Fisk | 15% |
| Preston Stout | 15% |
| Chris Kirk | 15% |
| Gary Woodland | 14% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 14% |
| William Mouw | 14% |
| Beau Hossler | 14% |
| John Parry | 14% |
| Billy Horschel | 14% |
| Joel Dahmen | 14% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 14% |
| Kevin Yu | 13% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 13% |
| Garrick Higgo | 13% |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 12% |
| Aaron Wise | 12% |
| Stephan Jaeger | 11% |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 11% |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 11% |
| Matt Kuchar | 11% |
| A.J. Ewart | 11% |
| Austin Eckroat | 11% |
| Matthieu Pavon | 11% |
| Nick Dunlap | 11% |
| Neal Shipley | 11% |
| Hao-Tong Li | 10% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 10% |
| Patrick Fishburn | 10% |
| Karl Vilips | 10% |
| Luke Clanton | 10% |
| David Skinns | 10% |
| Chandler Phillips | 10% |
| Chad Ramey | 9% |
| Erik Van Rooyen | 9% |
| Pontus Nyholm | 9% |
| Trace Crowe | 9% |
| David Lipsky | 9% |
| Mark Hubbard | 9% |
| Lanto Griffin | 9% |
| Adam Hadwin | 9% |
| Ryder Cowan | 7% |
| Hayden Springer | 7% |
| Vince Whaley | 7% |
| Harry Higgs | 6% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 6% |
| Gordon Sargent | 5% |
| Cameron Champ | 5% |
| Luke List | 4% |
| Jason Day | 1% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 81% probability to pga tour: 3m open top 20. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 20 at the 2026 3M Open tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final results are not anno…
Methodology
This overview of PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 reviews the four comparable platforms from a regulatory perspective: which is accessible in your jurisdiction, where KYC kicks in, how the platform is classified by your country of residence. Live probability is the Polymarket mid; comparison columns show regulatory status, KYC thresholds and settlement options for each platform.
Resolution & payout
On Polymarket, resolution runs on-chain via UMA Optimistic Oracle. USDC payout is instant and automatic, with no KYC. Tax treatment depends on your jurisdiction — in the US, gains are usually ordinary income; in the UK, often capital gains. Consult a tax professional for your situation.
FAQ
- Is Polymarket legal in my country?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Actual usage via the Polymarket interface is not possible there. The legal status itself varies — many countries treat prediction markets as a gray area. Polymarket Legal UK has a different geo footprint.
- Can I trade anonymously?
- Pseudonymously, yes — up to the KYC threshold. Polymarket Legal UK stores an email address and wallet addresses rather than a legal name. Over $1,500 lifetime volume triggers KYC, after which identity is no longer anonymous.
- What happens during a tax audit?
- You're responsible for documenting your trades. Polymarket Legal UK exports a full transaction history (CSV/PDF) for tax reporting. In an audit you'll need to present these documents.
- Are prediction markets gambling?
- Legally unclear in most jurisdictions. Some interpretations classify them as wagering (gambling regulation applies), others as derivatives (financial regulation applies). There's no global precedent specifically for on-chain prediction markets.
- Is there a withdrawal cap?
- No platform-side cap. You can withdraw any amount provided KYC is complete. SEPA bank withdrawals over €15,000 trigger additional anti-money-laundering checks (statutory obligation for all platforms).
Trade PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 on Polymarket Legal UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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