World Cup Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup will take place across the United States, Mexico, and Canada from June to July, with the final scheduled for 13 July. This market resolves to "No" if the specified national team is eliminated before winning the tournament, or to "Other" if the competition is cancelled or incomplete by 13 October 2026. The 17% implied probability reflects a field of 32 qualified nations competing under standard FIFA rules, where historical win rates favour established footballing powers with deep squad depth and tournament experience.

Comparable World Cup markets show that crowd probabilities typically compress as tournament dates approach, particularly after qualifying draws determine group compositions and injury news emerges. France's 2022 runner-up finish and Argentina's 2024 Copa América victory have reshaped expectations around South American and European contenders. Traders should monitor official FIFA fixture announcements (expected by early 2026), squad announcements in May, and late-breaking injuries or suspensions in June. Recent reporting from Reuters and ESPN has highlighted fixture congestion concerns affecting player availability, which may influence performance predictions for nations relying on club-fatigued squads.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility varies by jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV provisions, prediction markets on sporting events face stricter oversight than financial derivatives, though the €1,500 threshold for simplified KYC procedures may apply to smaller positions. US CFTC reach extends to US persons trading on offshore platforms, though the agency has not formally classified World Cup prediction markets as derivatives requiring registration. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold commonly referenced means traders can establish positions below that amount without full identity verification on certain platforms, though settlement and withdrawal may still require documentation.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.