Senegal vs. Iraq - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup fixture between Senegal and Iraq will take place at BMO Field in Toronto on 26 June 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, with the market resolving strictly on the final score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shoot-outs[4][8].

Historical World Cup group-stage matches involving African and Asian nations often produce low-scoring outcomes, with over 2.5 goals occurring in roughly 40% of such fixtures in recent tournaments, framing the current 4% crowd-implied probability for an exact score as a high-risk, low-probability event[1][3]. Comparable cases from the 2022 and 2018 World Cups show that exact-score markets for mismatched teams rarely settle positively, reinforcing the need for caution when interpreting current odds.

Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements and any late weather updates for Toronto, as rain could suppress goal output, while recent training footage confirms both teams are in final preparation phases[7][9]. The German GlüStV regulatory framework and US CFTC reach impose strict compliance on prediction platforms, yet the 'no-KYC up to $1,500' threshold allows accessible participation for retail traders without identity verification, provided the platform adheres to anti-money laundering protocols. This specific market remains open only until the match is completed if postponed, ensuring no premature settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Senegal vs. Iraq - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.