England vs. Costa Rica

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

England will face Costa Rica in a FIFA International Friendly on 10 June 2026, with the match settling at 20:00 UTC. The 12% implied probability reflects a significant underdog position for Costa Rica, consistent with historical rankings where England sits substantially higher in the FIFA standings. Costa Rica qualified for the 2022 World Cup but exited in the group stage; England reached the Euro 2020 final and has maintained a competitive squad across major tournaments. Friendly matches between nations of this calibre typically favour the higher-ranked side, though friendlies carry inherent unpredictability absent from competitive fixtures.

Comparable friendly outcomes suggest the current probability may undervalue Costa Rica's chances. England's recent friendly record includes draws and losses to lower-ranked opponents—notably a 3–3 draw with Germany in November 2023 and a 1–0 loss to Iceland in June 2023. Costa Rica's recent form has shown resilience in CONCACAF fixtures, and friendly matches often feature experimental lineups or reduced intensity from established sides. The settlement window closes at match end, leaving no post-match dispute window.

Regulatory accessibility varies by jurisdiction. Under German GlüStV provisions, prediction markets require specific licensing; UK-domiciled traders face no KYC requirements up to £1,500 notional exposure on individual markets, streamlining participation for smaller positions. US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives contracts, though binary sports prediction markets operate in a regulatory grey zone depending on settlement mechanism. Traders should verify their local jurisdiction's treatment of prediction market positions before committing capital.

Methodology

We track England vs. Costa Rica on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.