Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 10?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's Pudong International Airport typically records temperatures between 24 and 32 degrees Celsius in early June, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical weather database for the single highest reading on 10 June 2026, measured at the airport's official station. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently assess a specific temperature threshold as unlikely, though the exact range boundaries determine which outcome resolves YES.

Historical June data from Shanghai shows considerable year-to-year variance. Between 2015 and 2024, daily highs on or near 10 June ranged from 26°C to 34°C, with 2022 and 2023 recording peaks above 32°C. The absence of trading activity at current odds reflects either confidence in cooler conditions or sparse liquidity rather than certainty about meteorological outcomes. Comparable markets on East Asian summer temperatures have typically seen probability shifts only when seasonal forecasts update or when the settlement date approaches within two weeks.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under different frameworks depending on trader location. The German GlüStV treats weather derivatives as financial instruments requiring specific licensing; UK-domiciled traders face FCA oversight of prediction market operators. US CFTC jurisdiction applies to US persons, though the agency has historically exempted certain prediction markets. Platforms offering no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure typically structure such limits per calendar month and per underlying event, meaning this Shanghai temperature market would fall within that threshold for most retail participants, though verification requirements vary by jurisdiction and operator policy.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Legal UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.