Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026?

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Market context

The Senate still has not cleared a reconciliation bill, and the remaining window is tight. The current 0% implied probability reflects the fact that the chamber must pass a bill, not merely continue drafting it, before the market closes on 31 May. In practical terms, this is a narrow legislative event rather than a broad policy question: the budget resolution was only the first step, the committees have since produced reconciliation text, and final passage still requires floor action in the Senate. For market-access purposes, this kind of binary US legislative contract can sit within the United States’ CFTC-style prediction-market framework, while also raising German GlüStV questions for users in Germany because it is a regulated gambling-style product rather than a normal financial security. On this market, “no-KYC up to $1,500” means a user may be able to participate without full identity verification until cumulative activity reaches that threshold, but access remains subject to local rules and platform limits.

Comparable budget-reconciliation fights suggest the key risk is compression, not concept. Once the House adopted the identical budget resolution on 29 April, the process moved into committee drafting, with the Senate Homeland Security and Judiciary committees having released initial reconciliation spending language in early May. CBO scoring put the Senate-side recommendations at roughly $72 billion in extra deficit over ten years, indicating the bill is real but still contested in detail. Historically, these packages can move quickly once leadership fixes a floor date, but they can also stall over amendment strategy, vote counting, or unresolved differences between chambers. A 0% price therefore reads less like certainty than a market waiting for a formal Senate floor schedule.

Watch for leadership statements on whether the bill will be brought up before 31 May, any announced unanimous consent or floor-cloture timetable, and whether the House and Senate versions remain aligned enough to avoid another round of approvals. Recent reporting from Ballotpedia on 7 May and the American Hospital Association on 30 April both note the administration’s preference for passage before 1 June and the committees’ May 15 drafting deadline, so the next catalyst is whether the Senate majority leader actually files the bill for consideration. Without that, the market resolves No by default.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.