Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is whether any listed head of government will be permanently removed from office before the end of 2026, excluding temporary suspensions or caretaker roles. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a "Yes" outcome, reflecting the market’s view that no incumbent leader faces imminent, irreversible removal within the settlement window.

Historically, permanent removals of sitting leaders before term expiry are rare and typically stem from coup, criminal conviction, or death in office—not electoral defeat or resignation announcements. Comparable cases such as Yoon Suk Yeol’s recent impeachment suspension (which did not remove him permanently) or Macron’s firm stance against resigning before 2027[8] illustrate why the market assigns near-zero odds. Even in volatile systems, leaders tend to complete terms unless extraordinary force intervenes, and no such force is currently evident for any listed individual.

Traders should monitor official announcements of resignation or removal, scheduled election outcomes that could vacate offices, and dependencies like judicial rulings or legislative votes. A recent report from The Hill notes strategist James Carville predicting Trump may exit by Easter 2027, though this refers to post-midterm political pressure rather than permanent removal before 2027[2]. For accessibility, German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks allow "no-KYC up to $1,500" trades, meaning this market remains open to retail participants without identity verification, provided they stay within regulatory thresholds. This structure enhances liquidity while maintaining compliance with KYC exemptions for low-value positions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.