Elon Musk # tweets May 15 - May 22, 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Elon Musk’s X activity over the seven-day window will be counted from posts on his main feed, quote posts and reposts, with replies excluded unless they appear as main-feed entries. The current 0% implied probability is a market artefact rather than a meaningful statement about his posting habits: Musk has repeatedly posted in bursts around legal, business and political events, and prior tweet-count markets have seen sharp repricing when his cadence shifted suddenly. For comparison, recent coverage of the May 8–15 window noted large probability swings as attention centred on the OpenAI trial, his comments on French judges and other high-profile disputes, underscoring how fast these markets can move on live developments. Because resolution depends on a fixed tracker and the market settles at 16:00 UTC on 22 May, late-window posts can still matter if they are captured within the measurement period.

From a market-access perspective, this sits in a regulatory and tax grey zone that matters for participation. Polymarket-style venues generally operate outside the US, where the CFTC’s reach can still be relevant if activity is deemed to involve US persons or US-linked conduct. In Germany, the GlüStV framework can treat event contracts as gambling-like products depending on structure and local interpretation, so accessibility is not just a question of wallet funding but also of whether the user can lawfully participate from their jurisdiction. “No-KYC up to $1,500” means smaller deposits and withdrawals may be available without full identity checks, which lowers onboarding friction for this market, but it does not remove jurisdictional restrictions or reporting obligations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.