Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tiger Woods, the professional golfer, has no known federal criminal convictions requiring a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve. Woods faced a 2017 DUI arrest in Florida on misdemeanour charges, which he resolved through a plea agreement and completion of a diversion programme, resulting in case dismissal. A pardon would be extraordinary absent new federal charges or conviction. The market's 1% probability reflects the negligible baseline likelihood of such an action absent material legal developments between now and June 2026.

Presidential pardons historically target individuals with federal convictions or pending federal charges. Recent examples include Trump's 2020–2021 pardon grants to associates like Paul Manafort and Roger Stone, who faced federal prosecution. Woods has no comparable federal legal exposure. For a pardon to materialise, Woods would need to face federal indictment, conviction, or sentencing—an event with no current indication. The absence of any reported federal legal jeopardy makes this market's low probability consistent with precedent.

Traders should monitor any federal criminal charges filed against Woods, announcements from the Department of Justice, or Trump administration statements regarding Woods specifically. The market settles on official US government confirmation of a pardon, commutation, or reprieve, with credible news reporting as secondary resolution source. Regulatory access to this market depends on jurisdiction: UK traders face FCA oversight; US traders encounter CFTC reach depending on broker registration; and German participants should note GlüStV compliance requirements. No-KYC entry up to £1,200 applies on certain platforms, though higher stakes typically require identity verification under anti-money-laundering frameworks.

Methodology

We track Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Legal UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Legal UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Legal UK?

Zero. Polymarket Legal UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.